Plano is short on homes for sale because fewer owners are selling, and that's why tight supply hasn't pushed prices up.
In September 2026, Plano had 3.2 months of single-family inventory. That's well below Collin County's 4.4 months. Over the same month, Plano's median sale price fell 3.1% year over year to $510,000. Inventory is shrinking because of what sellers are doing, and buyer demand hasn't changed much. That affects the most practical number a buyer deals with: how close the final sale price lands to the asking price.
The Discount Habit From Up North Doesn't Carry Over
Buyers often tour Plano, Frisco and Prosper in the same weekend. The September 2026 MLS summary produced by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M shows how differently those markets behave once an offer goes in.
| September 2026, single-family | Months of inventory | Median days on market | Sold-to-list ratio | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plano | 3.2 | 44 | 95.0% | $510,000 |
| Frisco | 4.9 | 55 | 93.3% | $669,500 |
| Prosper | 6.5 | 90 | 90.1% | $819,000 |
| Collin County | 4.4 | 65 | 93.2% | $447,000 |
The sold-to-list column matters most if you're about to make an offer. The Texas Real Estate Research Center describes this ratio as the closing price compared with the original list price. Because it measures against the original price, it captures every price cut a seller made before closing.
Here's a simple illustration. Take a home listed at $510,000. At Plano's September average of 95.0%, it would close around $484,500. At Prosper's 90.1%, the same list price would close around $459,500. That's about $25,000 apart. These ratios are averages across many sales, so no single house will match them exactly. Still, a buyer who learned to negotiate in Prosper's 6.5-month market and brings that same opening offer to Plano is pricing against a market with half the supply.
Plano's Inventory Is Shrinking From the Seller Side
The months-of-inventory figure is calculated as current listings divided by average monthly sales over the previous 12 months. So it can drop for two reasons: more buyers, or fewer listings. Plano's numbers point to fewer listings.
- New listings fell. In August 2026, Plano had 254 new single-family listings, down from 318 in August 2025. In September 2026 it had 246, down from 260.
- Sales didn't jump. Plano closed 167 single-family sales in August 2026, down from 225 a year earlier. September came in at 192, up modestly from 181.
- Active listings dropped sharply. Plano had 583 active single-family listings in September 2026, compared with 689 a year earlier. In August it had 597, compared with 779.
- Price per square foot stayed flat. The median was $208.59 in September 2026, compared with $211.34 a year earlier.
If demand were surging, sales would be rising sharply and price per square foot would be climbing. Sales fell in August and rose only slightly in September, and price per square foot slipped. Fewer homes came onto the market, the homes that did come on sold at a similar pace, and prices held roughly level.
Averages can also mislead you here. In September 2026, Plano's average sale price rose 1.3% to $587,066 while the median fell. A few higher-priced sales can lift the average even when the typical home sold for a little less.
What Keeps Plano Owners From Listing
No source has surveyed Plano homeowners on why they aren't selling. Two mechanisms that apply to any Texas homeowner with a mortgage and a homestead exemption fit the pattern closely.
The rate gap. As of Q2 2026, 49.1% of outstanding fixed-rate mortgages on one- to four-unit homes nationwide carried rates below 4%, and 65.6% were below 5%. That's according to a Calculated Risk analysis of FHFA's National Mortgage Database. Meanwhile, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% for October 8, 2026, up from 7.03% on September 24. An owner who sells and buys again gives up the old rate. The same analysis says "time is eroding this lock-in effect" as older loans are paid off, and the share of loans above 6% has grown to 22.5%. These figures are national. I didn't find a Plano-specific breakdown.
The homestead appraisal cap. Under Texas Tax Code Section 23.23, a homestead's appraised value can rise no more than 10% per year once the owner has qualified for the exemption in both the prior year and the current year. The Texas Comptroller explains that the limitation ends on January 1 of the tax year after the owner no longer qualifies. On a newly purchased homestead, it takes effect on January 1 of the tax year after the owner qualifies. In a city where values climbed for years, a long-time owner's appraised value may sit below market value. A move starts that count over on the next house. Separately, the Comptroller lists a $140,000 school district residence homestead exemption, which applies to whichever home an owner occupies. How this plays out for a particular owner depends on their appraisal history. Your appraisal district or a tax professional can work through your specific numbers.
Both of these make staying put more attractive for owners who don't have to sell. That's consistent with fewer new listings, lower sales volume in August and flat prices.
The 4% That Is Left
The other half of the explanation is land. Prosper and Frisco resale sellers compete with builders who have new inventory to sell. Plano resale sellers mostly don't.
In April 2026, Plano Planning Director Christina Day told Community Impact that only 4% of the city's land is undeveloped. "Every piece of land that's undeveloped has a lot of neighbors, people that have a strong interest in what happens there," she said. In the same article, Mayor John Muns said, "Green field development is very limited these days." The city's zoning ordinance diagnostic report expects future growth to shift toward infill and redevelopment.
The new supply Plano does have comes from a small number of large redevelopment projects:
- Haggard Farm. This $750 million project sits on 142 acres at the southeast corner of Spring Creek Parkway and Parkwood Boulevard. It held its groundbreaking on December 11, and Community Impact reported in April 2026 that vertical construction would start soon, with an apartment building going up first. The first phase includes 187 townhomes on a site expanded to 18.8 acres. In January 2026, construction was expected to take about two years. By April 2026, Community Impact gave 2027 as the expected finish.
- Collin Creek. At the former Collin Creek Mall, developer Centurion American is expected to complete a large share of the project's single-family and multifamily housing by the end of 2026, and construction is expected to continue through 2028. That's according to Community Impact's October 2026 report.
These projects will add homes, mostly townhomes and mixed-use housing. They're spread over several years, so they won't compete with Plano's detached resale homes in the way that a steady flow of builder inventory competes with resale homes farther north. These timelines reflect 2026 reporting and could shift.
Writing an Offer With These Numbers
Putting it together, here's how I'd plan a Plano offer this fall.
- Start your offer math from Plano's own ratio. September 2026 sales closed at 95.0% of original list, compared with 94.9% in August. That leaves room to negotiate, but much less than in Prosper.
- Check how long the home has been listed. Plano's median was 44 days on market in September 2026. A listing well past that, or one with price cuts already taken, is where the gap between list and sale price tends to open up. Because the ratio measures against the original price, those earlier cuts are already built into the average.
- Use median and price per square foot to judge value. The average sale price moved up in September while the median moved down. Price per square foot is a steadier gauge of what your money buys.
- Remember the seller's position. Many Plano owners listing right now are giving up a low rate and, if they've owned for years, appraisal history under the homestead cap. If they're listing anyway, there's usually a reason that has nothing to do with price. Asking what's driving their timeline can matter as much as the price you offer.
Quick Answers
Is Plano a seller's market right now? With 3.2 months of supply in September 2026, Plano is tighter than Collin County at 4.4 months. Its median price fell 3.1% year over year, though, so sellers have leverage on how quickly homes sell more than on how high prices go.
Will Haggard Farm and Collin Creek loosen supply? They add new housing, mostly over 2026 through 2028, and much of it is townhomes or multifamily. Detached resale homes in established Plano neighborhoods still depend on owners deciding to sell.
Does the 10% cap transfer to a new home? According to the Texas Comptroller, the limitation ends on January 1 of the year after an owner no longer qualifies for the exemption on that home. On the new homestead, it takes effect on January 1 of the tax year after the owner qualifies.
If you're comparing a Plano listing with homes in Frisco or Prosper and want offer math built on this month's numbers, the team at Virtual City Real Estate can walk you through it line by line, from the list price to the day you close. Schedule a consultation and we'll build your Plano offer plan together.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
